The Weather Man Podcast, I talk about weather!

From Solar Flares to Snowfall ....Here is my Winter 2024-2025 outlook for the Northeast

• Stephen Pellettiere

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Could solar storms be the hidden force behind our changing weather patterns? Join us as we uncover the fascinating connections between solar activity and Earth's atmospheric conditions. We shine a light on the persistent drought plaguing the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast regions, and provide an update on the fair skies expected in major hubs like Boston, New York, and Washington, D.C. From the gentle rains in northern Virginia to the formidable storms hitting the Pacific Northwest, we cover it all. Plus, we explore the rare aurora sightings in Florida and how coronal mass ejections from the sun might be altering our weather in ways we never imagined.

As the chilly embrace of winter approaches, we delve into the potential for significant snowstorms and varying snowfall scenarios. Will we see a dramatic single storm or a series of smaller ones? We break down the probabilities, from a 25% chance of exceeding 50 inches of snow to a coin-toss likelihood of receiving between 20 and 45 inches. Stay informed with our regular updates and catch a glimpse of what's in store for the upcoming weekend. Whether you're planning your next adventure or simply intrigued by the elements, this episode offers a comprehensive look at the intriguing dance between the sun and our planet's weather systems.

Speaker 1:

Hi, this is meteorologist Steve Pelletieri and I am the weatherman. Thanks for checking in to theweathermanpodcom on your Friday 15th day. It's the eyes of November. We're halfway through the month and quickly approaching the Thanksgiving holiday, or the holiday season too. Across much of the nation we are looking at generally dry conditions, continuing across the mid-Atlantic and northeast. It's been a really tough go. It's been very dry since September and it looks as though it's going to stay dry at least through this weekend. We do have a couple of chances of some very light showers, but no long soaking type of rains, and those rains are sorely needed. There were some estimates up to 10 inches as needed in order to break the drought and restore much of the aquifers and the streams and rivers back up to normal values and also reduce that fire threat as well across the northeast. Taking a look across the nation, though, we are looking at fair conditions in Boston, if you're traveling by air, no problems weather-wise into the Boston area. Also into New York, newark, philadelphia, baltimore and DC no problems expected there. There is a little area of some rain that's moving down across northern Virginia, but it's very light in this. No specific very severe weather associated with that, just some overcast conditions but by the book and it looks like good conditions down into the Carolinas Charlotte looking good, as does Nashville. Good weather in Atlanta, south Florida, central Florida from Jacksonville all the way to Tampa, west to Tallahassee no problems there. Also down to Fort Myers and into Fort Lauderdale and Miami.

Speaker 1:

Good weather expected for flying on this Friday. Looking good also in Texas, houston and Dallas all the way up into St Louis. Dry conditions. West Coast has those big storms. You've heard about the severe turbulence and it's mostly associated with and it happens quite often, especially when the flights are coming in from the west, from, say, japan, or from China or from Southeast Asia as they cross into northern portions of the Pacific Ocean. They hit some of these Aleutian lows that are causing lots of rain across the Pacific Northwest and snow in the mountains of Montana into Utah and also in Idaho, and those storms will continue to move into the Pacific Northwest. They are expecting some rainy weather and just some lighter rain in the Seattle area on Friday. Another couple of storms will move in either later Saturday or Sunday. Weather across the Northeast corridor looks like dry conditions for Friday. Highs will range generally around 50 to 55. By Saturday it'll be up to near 60. Sunday also 60 to 65, and even dry weather on Monday, maybe some wet weather moving into the Northeast sometime towards the end of next week.

Speaker 1:

Well, I've been touting the fact that we're going to be talking about the 2024-25 winter season. It is the 15th and this is typically the time that we start our winter weather watch for our clients and for folks across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, and a few things I just want to tell you about that really have a lot to do with what's going on in the weather right now Not necessarily what you might think. Let's start with the sun. When was the last time that you heard that a royalis or the northern lights were being seen in Florida Florida, it was in the papers and I was there in Florida to see those northern lights down in Fort Myers. It was kind of odd in the year Early morning hours and you had to have a dark sky but they were actually able to be seen. The solar storms of May and October 2024 caused the aurora to be seen in Florida twice in the same year. During strong solar storms, the aurora or the northern lights can be visible as far south as states like California, oregon and even parts of the southern states like Alabama and Florida, like I saw, depending on the intensity of the geomatic storm. Now these storms are potentially visible in the southernmost part of the United States, except seeing that far south is rare and requires specific conditions. I mentioned that you need that dark sky. We had those specific conditions not once, but twice so far.

Speaker 1:

Now these geomatic storms that are caused by the solar corona mass ejections, they're called CMEs. The sun throws a minuscule, just a teeny, weeny part of itself out into space and towards the Earth and the other planets in the solar system. Now the implications of this are one the solar mass ejections are hot. Now the Earth's atmosphere absorbs the heat with a resulting brief burst of warmth and we had that from May to June across the Northeast dry and about 3 to 5 degrees above normal. It takes the Earth about one to two months to dissipate this extra solar heat, and that's in my opinion. And the latest solar ejection is being felt now with regular high temperatures. Earlier in November it was in the 80s in New York City on the 5th through the 6th of November and the winter in the northern hemisphere is coming very, very quickly, but in the southern hemisphere it's going to be slow to dissipate. That's because the sun is out a lot more in the north, less sunshine in the south, more as we get closer and closer to that first day of winter. This accounts for the dryness as well, because the swift evaporation after one to two months of this very warm conditions, conditions will tend to return to normal unless there are more what we call CMEs or solar mesh injections. So that's the sun.

Speaker 1:

The sun has something to do with it, believe it or not? I mean, after all, it is the source of all energy. Now, drought implications. I mean, after all, it is the source of all energy. Now, drought implications as mentioned above, the normal conditions lead to expeditious evaporation. No-transcript. It actually evaporates a lot of the available moisture and it's supposed to go back into the sky and it's called the water cycle. And what happens is, when you have these warm conditions, the water cycle becomes damaged.

Speaker 1:

The water cycle is very important. First, the water cycle is also known as a hydrologic cycle. It's the continuous movement of water on the earth and in the atmosphere. It's a complex system that involves many processes and that's evaporation. That's when the sun hits the ground and the water evaporates that liquid water turns into water vapor. You can't see it, but it's there. Condensation Then water vapor cools and turns into clouds as it rises up. Higher gets the less pressure up there and it climbs into clouds. And precipitation is when those clouds get so much humidity or so much moisture that it causes precipitation or supersaturation and the water falls back to the earth as rain, snow or sleet or hail or anything else. Now sublimation is when ice turns directly into water vapor without melting. That's not really a big implication about drought conditions, but you can have that, especially when you have dry conditions in the colder northern latitudes.

Speaker 1:

During these warm bursts the evaporation process is accelerated, which results in precipitation at first, but with rapid evaporation, condensation overworks, resulting in very heavy rains in localized areas. Now we had those recent heavy rains in localized areas. Now we had those recent deluges in western Carolina it's from Helene. Heavy rains in eastern Spain you might have heard of those flooding conditions eastern Spain, barcelona, larger typhoons in the Philippines, as well as in Africa and Central Asia. This has all been occurring this year and the rising intensity and frequency of these events may be linked to a shift in the El Nino weather pattern to the La Nina, which typically brings drier conditions and weaker storms to the northeast, and that's basically what we're having. El Nino is when you have warm water off the coast of Peru, off the coast of South America, pacific Coast, and La Nina is when that actually gets a little bit cooler. And basically what it does is it changes some of the weather patterns all across the earth, and it's not only the El Nino and La Nina. There are other places across the globe where this stuff tends to happen and it also affects the longer-term type of weather situations.

Speaker 1:

The other thing that we're looking at is weather record matches warmth and dry. We wrote a study on rainless streaks in New York City and Philly area since the 1920s and the dry periods in September and October and compared them with the following winters. The findings show that since 1924, about 100 years there were seven years that had ultra-dry or rainless streaks lasting from 15 to 40 days. I think we're actually even above that right now, and the following winter showed well above normal snowfall five out of the seven times. So in other words, when you had dry and you had that warmer condition in the fall, five out of the seven times that this happened over the last 100 years, you had above normal snowfall In 2024,. We're close to a 40 days without significant rainfall, actually close to about 50, 55 days, and this implies statistically that we've had 75% chance of above normal snow in the 2024-25 winter season. The last time this occurred, 2013, we had over 50 inches of snow in the winter of 2013-2014. You forget about those things, especially since having such dry winters over the last couple, especially two seasons ago that was practically non-existent.

Speaker 1:

And the old Farmer's Almanac I have to bring up the Farmer's Almanac as well. Years ago, in the 19th and 20th century, early 20th century the US was mainly an agricultural nation. Farming was so dependent on the weather and the weather was what the almanac produced. Weather forecast, because there really was a National Weather Service, actually started taking observations right after the Civil War and it gradually grew, but it didn't have the computer power that it has right now. So it was really tough to forecast weather. And when you did forecast weather, they were forecasting maybe one or two days or three days in advance, and that was a tough thing to do because you just didn't have the models and you didn't have the technology that we have today. So the National Weather Service, you know, put out their forecast and did the best that they could for the farmers. But the Farmers' Almanac the National Farmers' Almanac, which covers the whole nation was what we had and what they did, and they actually came out with a forecast all the time.

Speaker 1:

So all you would need to do is go down to your store, press you know on the mail and make sure that you get a subscription. For $8.95 in today's money, you can buy the almanac. It's a great read and uses statistics and secret formula for forecasting weather and this year it predicts above normal temperatures for the Atlantic Corridor, richmond to and about the Boston area, and snowfall will be below normal north and above normal south, and we're right in the middle. So there's really no help for the Philly, new York and Boston area. They're saying it's going to be less than normal, but to the south it's going to be more than normal. So you know they pretty much word their forecast so that they can republish again next year and people will be buying it and it's also a good read. It's got great information in the Farmer's Almanac so you might want to take a look at that. So our prediction for the 24-25 season we're already 10 minutes into this.

Speaker 1:

We very rarely talk this much. We were talking at the office and mentioned the record high temperatures in the 80s in November, and the last time that happened was 1993. Talking at the office and mentioned the record high temperatures in the 80s in November and the last time that happened was 1993. And the following winter we had over 60 inches of snow in New York City. That was in 1993. Take a look back in your record books. About 35 inches fell in the greater Philadelphia metro area in a little bit, of course less as you go down to Baltimore and DC. And the following winter had over 60 inches in New York and 35 in the Philly area. Then there was a dry season, then once again a very heavy season right after that. So that was 93, 94. The 94, 95 was kind of dry, the 95, 96 was just a tremendous winter. So more things can happen in this type of weather pattern.

Speaker 1:

So what we're looking at is more snow than last season. It's a 25% probability of 20 inches or less. So in other words, there's a 25% chance, a one in four chance, that we'll have less snow than last year. Using statistics and using all the other information we have, there's about a 50% probability of between 20 and 45 inches. Now that's more than last year and it may be a little bit more than normal to some places, but we're looking for that 20 to 45% chance and about a 25% probability. Also a one in four shot of greater than 45 inches of snow and ice in North Jersey, new York City and Northeastern Pennsylvania Less to the south, more to the north, near to above normal temperatures.

Speaker 1:

Always we're in that trend. It's been that way. It looks like it'll continue that way, especially if we have more solar outbursts and near-normal precipitation. Hopefully we're going to get into some of that near-normal precipitation as we get into the month of December. So with all this in mind, you've got it.

Speaker 1:

We're looking for some warming conditions but some pretty good snowstorms as a possibility, and it could all happen in one storm. You might have a 20 or 30-inch snowstorm or something like that, maybe one blizzard and about five or six little teeny weeny storms, or it could happen like fives and sixes, you know, maybe five storms of five inches, that type of thing. So that's something that we're looking for. So we put it out there about a one-in-four shot of less than 20 inches, about 50-50 of 20 to 45 inches and about a 25% chance of above that 50-inch figure for this upcoming winter. Well, I've said a lot and we've taken a lot of your time. Hope you enjoyed some of the information that I had here. You can look it up. It's all online and we'll talk to you again tomorrow with a regular report. Take a look at this upcoming weekend on Saturday. In the meantime, have yourself a great day. Talk to you again soon.